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When the price for crude oil crashed in 2014, business investment and consumer spending slowed, apparently because of a lack of confidence rather than lower employment or incomes. The two other drivers for the provincial economy, namely government spending and trade, held up to keep the economy in reasonably good shape in 2015.

The outlook for 2016 depends on how the four engines react to the low commodity prices. Government spending and trade should continue to do well but business investment is expected to fall again. This puts the fate of the provincial economy in the hands of consumers. It is too soon to say how they will respond but the best guess is a modest recovery in spending and continued slow economic growth as a result.

Employment among Aboriginal people living off Reserve has been growing in Saskatchewan and the employment rate is one of the highest in the country. Employment stopped growing in 2014 and 2015 as the economy slowed so the outlook for continued improvement is poor.

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